If you’re building a 2026 IT hardware budget, the numbers you used last year are wrong. Memory contract prices climbed 90–95% in Q1 2026. Dell raised list prices 17% on March 30 and has bumped them multiple times since. Microsoft has another price increase landing in June. The analysts at TrendForce, Gartner, IDC, and Counterpoint Research now agree on the same forecast: no meaningful relief through Q1 2027. This post pulls together what they’re saying, what we’re seeing in real OEM quotes right now, and the procurement moves that actually work in this market.

This is for IT directors and decision-makers running 2026 and 2027 hardware planning. We’ll cover where prices stand, what five major analysts forecast through Q1 2027, what’s happening at Dell, HP, Lenovo, Asus, and Microsoft right now, and how to protect your budget without overpaying.

If you’ve been holding out for relief, the next four quarters are going to settle the question.

How We Got Here: Q1 2026 Set the Tone

Q1 2026 broke records. TrendForce’s reported DRAM jump was the largest single-quarter increase ever recorded. Server DRAM rose more than 60%. PC DRAM rose over 100%. Enterprise SSDs jumped 53–58%. None of those numbers are typos.

The cause is structural. AI infrastructure demand from hyperscalers absorbed an unprecedented share of memory production. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron deliberately constrained supply growth to protect pricing power. The 2020-2022 oversupply downturn taught them what happens when they flood the market. They’re not making that mistake again.

Now the forward question: what’s coming next?

What’s Coming for IT Hardware Budgets Through Q1 2027

TrendForce: Q2 Hits Harder, From a Different Angle

TrendForce projects another 58–63% QoQ rise in DRAM contract prices for Q2 2026, on top of the Q1 jump. NAND Flash is even more aggressive: Q2 contract prices are forecast to climb 70–75% QoQ, the largest jump on record for that category. Enterprise SSD demand is now the largest NAND segment globally, and CSPs are signing long-term agreements that effectively guarantee supply at premium prices, leaving everyone else fighting for what’s left. For Q3 and Q4, TrendForce’s outlook is “tight supply persists despite advanced process transitions.” Translation: don’t expect a peak. Expect a plateau at elevated levels.

Gartner: Memory Now Eats 23% of PC Build Cost

Gartner’s February 2026 forecast projects total combined DRAM and SSD price increases of roughly 130% by year-end 2026. The downstream effect: memory will account for 23% of a PC’s total bill of materials by Q4 2026, up from 16% in 2025. HP confirmed this on their earnings call, where memory and storage went from 15–18% of PC BOM to 35% in a single quarter. For enterprise IT specifically, Gartner is calling for an 8–12% budget increase just to maintain unit volume into 2027. Anyone planning a 2027 refresh on a 2025 budget framework is going to come up short.

IDC: Budget for Another 10–15% as Q3 Pricing Lands

IDC’s procurement guidance is direct. Any device order placed after April 2026 should assume the higher of currently quoted prices, with explicit budget contingency for an additional 10–15% increase as Q3 contract pricing flows through customer pipelines. For PC market dynamics, IDC’s pessimistic scenario forecasts an 11.3% contraction in shipments through 2026, with no rebound until 2028. That contraction is happening because end-buyers are extending lifecycles, not because business demand softened.

Counterpoint: DDR5 Server Memory Will Double

Counterpoint’s analysis is the most pointed for enterprise IT. DDR5 64GB RDIMM modules, the workhorse of enterprise data centers, are projected to cost twice as much by year-end 2026 versus early 2025. Their Q3-Q4 outlook calls for continued tightness with only modest easing potential. Their advice for non-hyperscaler buyers heading into 2027: stagger procurement across quarters to average out cost spikes, and lock in supply agreements wherever possible.

The Manufacturers: Booked Through 2027

This is the data point that should reset your assumptions. SK Hynix told investors at recent IR sessions that DRAM prices are expected to continue rising “for several years” and is responding by relying on short-term contracts rather than locking in volume agreements. Samsung is currently fulfilling only 70% of incoming DRAM orders. Both companies have signaled they will not aggressively expand capacity, prioritizing long-term margin over volume. Micron exited the consumer memory market entirely to focus on enterprise and AI customers, with their CEO confirming “demand significantly in excess of our available supply for the foreseeable future.”

The capital plans tell the same story. SK Hynix’s M15X mega-fab and Samsung’s P4L expansion don’t reach volume production until late 2027. New Micron capacity in Idaho ramps in 2027, with their Japan plant not online until late 2028. Industry analysts now openly state there is “no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half of 2027.”

From the Trenches: What Vendors Are Actually Doing Right Now

The analyst data is one half of the story. The other half is what’s actually showing up in OEM quotes and partner pricing this week. Here’s what we’re seeing across our active vendor relationships:

Dell. The 17% list price increase landed March 30, 2026, and Dell has raised pricing multiple times in the weeks since. Quote validity is down to 7–14 days on most server configs. Allocation is tight on RDIMM-heavy builds.

HP and Lenovo. Both have signaled 15–20% increases on PC product lines. Lenovo is also pulling some entry-level configurations entirely because the BOM math no longer works.

Asus. This is the surprise of Q2. Asus laptop pricing is currently the most attractive in our portfolio, partly because they’re not as deep in hyperscaler-allocation queues as the bigger names. For 50–500 person companies refreshing endpoint fleets in 2026, Asus is worth a serious look. We’re spec’ing them more often than we did six months ago.

Cisco. Compute price increases hit March 7, 2026, with continued pressure on memory-heavy product lines.

Microsoft. Another price increase is scheduled for June 2026, and the cumulative effect since the New Commerce Experience changes is real money on a 200-user M365 tenant. EA volume discounts on Azure have already been removed, creating a 6–12% uplift on cloud services. If you’re approaching an EA renewal, the math has changed.

If you’re working with a single-OEM partner, this is the part of the cycle where that limitation costs you the most. Multi-OEM access means we can quote across Dell, HPE, Lenovo, and Asus in parallel and find inventory and pricing that single-vendor partners can’t.

The Forward-Looking Picture, in One Frame

The entire 2026 budget cycle and most of the 2027 budget cycle will be planned and executed inside this market. The “wait it out” option is gone.

The “Wait Tax”: What Delay Actually Costs

Procurement analysts are calling the cost of delay the “Wait Tax.” It’s running roughly 5–10% per month in lost purchasing power, depending on category. OEM quote validity has collapsed in parallel: standard 30-day quote windows are now 14 days at most, often 7 days or less on tightly allocated server memory configurations.

Waiting isn’t a neutral choice. It’s an actively expensive one with no payoff. A quote you decline this Monday could be 8–10% more expensive 30 days from now, assuming the OEM honors a re-quote at all. If they don’t, you’re back at the end of the allocation queue.

One IT director on r/sysadmin documented a scenario where a CFO delayed approval on a routine server purchase. The OEM unilaterally canceled the purchase order and forced a re-quote, raising the per-unit cost from $15,000 to $40,000 in the time it took to circle back. That’s a 167% increase in weeks of indecision.

The framing for finance: delaying a Q3 2026 refresh into Q1 2027 doesn’t save money. It costs you 30–50% more for the same equipment, with longer lead times and more allocation risk.